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Recession concerns balloon into market fear

‘I would ask this one question: why would I not own a market?’ said Art Woolf, chief executive officer of Woolf Capital Management. ‘And if you don’t own the market, what do you want to own?’

He was speaking at the Morningstar Investment Conference, which took place on Tuesday morning in New York. During the conference, the renowned institutional-firm service Morningstar released its latest list of the top performing mutual funds for the second quarter of this year.

Naturally, many of the picks would be made in the face of weak markets – that meant markets reflecting little forward-thinking and forecasting. But Woolf seemed not to mind. He owned GMCR (General Motors Credit Retail), and was especially pleased with his move into Chrysler (NMV, S&P 500) so late in the quarter.

“In the face of market weakness, we were actually a little intrigued and challenged whether we could buy the right stocks,” Woolf said. “A lot of people get scared because they see weak markets, which makes them nervous, and they do a lot of value investing. At the same time, we’ve learned that it takes time to buy a stock and position yourself to get a good return.”

This was the first time in two years that Woolf had bothered to reach out to the general public in the manner of his business, and his attitude toward the masses was reflected by his choice of clothing: a bright orange polo shirt.

The investing style that he has developed and championed over the past few years is known as contrarian investing – the belief that the market no longer reflects reality, and that the surest way to get gains is to go against the grain.

“It’s not just that we don’t care,” he said of his belief that the market was generally overvalued and overbought. “It’s that it’s not what we care about. We care about what’s really happening out there.”

And perhaps what’s really happening out there is that people are losing faith in the system. The consumer is one of the few bright spots in what has recently been a dark, sea of gloom. Industry spending has dropped from more than 17% of GDP in the mid-1980s to 10% currently, as the average home has hit its sixth straight year of falling on the housing market.

The highest level of homebuilder confidence in recent years is in low-price areas

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